Halfway through 2026, the blind-box market looks different than it did in January — not because Labubu fell off, but because the field around it filled in. Secret figures are setting four-figure resale ceilings, a standard Labubu series now sells out in seconds, and a cluster of "emotional" Pop Mart lines is quietly eating into the king's share. Here is an honest mid-year read on what is hot, what is holding value, and what is actually smart to buy right now.
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This is a market check, not hype. The goal is to help you spend well in the back half of the year — whether that means chasing the moment or deliberately sitting it out.
The headline: Labubu still rules, but the pace is absurd
Labubu remains the dominant force, and the 2026 flagship lines — Big Into Energy and the Year-of-the-Horse zodiac tie-ins — are where the wild numbers live. The Big Into Energy secret has set the year's resale ceiling with consistent four-figure secondary comps, and rare collaborative pieces are posting four- and even five-figure valuations when tied to limited events.
The buying experience has gotten genuinely punishing, though. Collectors report a standard Labubu series now selling out in under 47 seconds in China and under three minutes in the US. If you are trying to buy at retail, you are effectively in a lottery against bots and resellers — which makes how you buy as important as what you buy.
The real story: the "moody" lines are surging
The more useful 2026 trend for most collectors is the rise of the Labubu alternatives. Crybaby, Skullpanda, Hirono, and Hacipupu are emerging as the strongest non-Labubu Pop Mart lines this year, driven by emotional design, plush portability, and rising resale momentum. Crybaby in particular crossed a billion yuan in revenue and has become the go-to "Labubu alternative," while Hacipupu's quiet, sleepy aesthetic is the trendsetter pick for collectors who want to stand out.
Why this matters to you: these lines are still buyable at or near retail, the chase is less insane than flagship Labubu, and several are showing triple-digit resale growth on platforms like StockX. If you missed the Labubu rocket and do not want to pay scalper prices, this is where the value-and-fun overlap is best right now. Our breakdown of Pop Mart's moody side goes deeper on how these three compare.
The zodiac wave is cooling — here's the read
The year opened on a heavy Year-of-the-Horse push. The Have a Good Run series landed January 9 with plush pendants around $43, dressing the whole Pop Mart roster — Labubu, Dimoo, Hirono, Crybaby, Molly — in horse-themed outfits, and a follow-up Year-of-the-Horse Labubu brought glow-in-the-dark variants that hit roughly $180–$250 on resale.
By mid-year, that wave has cooled from its launch peak, which is exactly the pattern to expect from a calendar-driven drop: zodiac pieces spike around the lunar new year and the initial sellout, then settle. If you want one, you are now buying into the calmer part of the curve rather than the frenzy — generally a better deal, as long as you are buying because you like the design and not because you expect it to keep climbing. Seasonal hooks fade; character demand is what actually sustains value.
What's holding value — and what quietly isn't
| Segment | Mid-2026 status | Buy-now read |
|---|---|---|
| Labubu Big Into Energy | Secret at four figures; sold out | Fan buy, not a flip |
| Crybaby | Strong momentum, $25–$130 commons | Best value-vs-hype balance |
| Year-of-the-Horse Labubu | Glow variants ~$180–$250 resale | Seasonal, cooling |
| Smiski / Sonny Angel | Stable, ~$12 entry | Safest cheap entry |
| Generic "mystery" knockoffs | No resale floor | Skip entirely |
The pattern is consistent: established characters with real demand hold value, while undifferentiated mystery toys riding the trend have no resale floor at all. For a deeper look at which figures keep their worth, see our guide on which blind-box figures hold value.
A timing note worth internalizing: prices peak immediately post-sellout, then drop 22–35% by Day 4 as speculative buyers offload. If you want a specific hyped figure, the worst possible moment to buy is launch day. Waiting a week often saves you a third.
What's smart to buy right now
If you want in on the hype (carefully): A current in-stock Crybaby or Skullpanda series is the sweet spot — real momentum, near-retail pricing, and a less brutal chase than flagship Labubu. You get the trend without paying the worst of the premium.
If you just want the fun of opening boxes: Stick with Smiski or Sonny Angel at ~$12. You get the full blind-box experience with no hype tax, and they make excellent low-stakes gifts.
If you are chasing a specific figure: Buy it outright on the secondary market rather than gambling on sealed boxes, and wait out the post-launch spike. The math almost always favors the targeted buy over the chase.
If you are tempted by a suspiciously cheap "deal": Don't, until you have authenticated it. The hotter the line, the more counterfeits flood in — start with our Labubu fake-spotting checklist.
A simple buying plan if you're new
If the market feels like a lot, here is a low-regret sequence for getting in during the back half of the year:
- Pick a lane, not a jackpot. Decide whether you are here for the fun of opening boxes (go cheap and frequent) or for specific characters (go targeted and patient). Trying to do both at once is how budgets disappear.
- Start with one in-stock series you actually like the look of. A current Crybaby or Skullpanda series gives you the 2026 trend at near-retail; a Smiski or Sonny Angel line gives you the cheapest path to find out if the hobby clicks.
- Set a per-month box budget before you buy anything. The chase is engineered to keep you pulling; a fixed cap is the single best defense, and it is the core of our pull-budget guide.
- Never buy a hyped figure on launch day, and never buy a "deal" you cannot authenticate. Those two rules alone will save most new collectors from their most expensive mistakes.
Do that and you participate in the most exciting blind-box year yet without inheriting its worst habits.
The bottom line for the back half of 2026
Labubu is still the headline, but the smart money this summer is diversifying. The emotional lines — Crybaby, Skullpanda, Hacipupu, Hirono — offer the best mix of momentum and accessibility, while Smiski and Sonny Angel remain the calm, cheap core of the hobby. Buy what you genuinely want to own, treat the secret-figure jackpots as lottery tickets rather than plans, and never buy a hyped figure on its launch-day high.
Frequently asked questions
Is it too late to start collecting in mid-2026? Not at all. Flagship Labubu is hard to buy at retail, but the rising lines — Crybaby, Skullpanda, Hacipupu — are buyable now and arguably more fun to chase. Starting today with one of those, or with a cheap Smiski/Sonny Angel line, is a perfectly good entry point.
Which Pop Mart line is the best value right now? For balancing hype and price, the moody lines (Crybaby and Skullpanda especially) are the standout — strong momentum without flagship-Labubu scalper pricing. For pure low-cost fun, Smiski and Sonny Angel at around $12 are the safest value.
Should I buy hyped figures on launch day? Usually no. Prices peak right after sellout and commonly fall 22–35% within a few days. Unless you need a figure immediately, waiting about a week after launch tends to save you a meaningful amount.
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